Analysing Cardiff's Recruitment

Amongst the uncertainty, Cardiff have calmly done some good recruitment.

It’s not a very good time to be a Welsh rugby club or Welsh rugby fan. The uncertainty means that Welsh teams are even less attractive than they were just last season. There’s probably a 50% chance the team you sign for won’t exist in a couple of seasons, which is a travesty by the way. Amongst this backdrop, it’s incredible that all four Welsh regions have been able to have competent off-seasons. Competent. That’s not that exciting but perhaps it’s wrong to expect any better.

First of all though, who are Cardiff trying to replace?

There are some big losses here, in Lee-Lo, Hamer-Webb, Litterick, Young, and Davies they are losing 77 matches from last year. Most of those players were back-ups and Lee-Lo is 39, but that is still experience that needs to be replaced.

I will just quickly jump on my high-horse before hopping off. One of the more infuriating aspects of modern sporting recruitment is the constant chase for younger and younger talents. In some ways of course that makes sense - they’re often cheaper and if you hit on one you can keep them around for a long time. However, if you are at a poorer team then it rarely works like that. You take on enormous risk first of all. Even the best scouting teams can’t find talented players 100% of the time. You might hire five and only one works out, then it’s not longer that cheap as you’re paying five low salaries for one productive player. If you sign them up to a long contract then great, you get the significant benefit of that player for a long period but that’s even more risk. You might sign those five up or five years paying 25 years of salary for five productive years. If you get them for just two years then you risk them getting a much better offer from a richer team after that two years and leaving just as they were getting good. Instead, older players offer more stability and less risk for marginally higher salaries.

In Lee-Lo’s case he had the 20th most minutes played in the URC last season among centres. You would expect that to decline this year, and this isn’t a criticism of Cardiff as it seemed like he wanted to move on, but he still represents significant value to a team who needs consistency. Litterick sits in the other camp. He was signed from Quins with just Championship and Premiership Rugby Cup experience behind him but turned into a very good player in his two years with Cardiff and at just 26 he has now been picked up by Edinburgh, presumably for an amount Cardiff didn’t feel able to match. Mackenzie Martin is out only on loan so expect him to get back on track after a bit of a lost year.

Who have Cardiff brought in to replace these losses?

Javan Sebastian (Tighthead Prop - 30)

It’s hard to see this as anything other than a trade with Sebastian coming from Edinburgh and Litterick going in the other direction. It’s hard to say that Cardiff win this swap but Litterick was Scottish qualified (as well as being Welsh qualified) and clearly saw his future north of the border. Cardiff did well to pick-up Sebastian in return. He had a quiet year last year but a good 2023-24 and will bring some needed experience.

Sam Wainwright (Tighthead Prop - 27)

Wainright has been good for the Scarlets and he will provide depth alongside Sebastian and behind Keiron Assiratti. I’d expect both Sebastian and Assiratti to be away at least some of the time on International duty (though that is less of a factor in the URC). Cardiff will now have quite a flat tighthead group where any of them could be a starter. That might not be the ideal use of resources but it is helpful with the modern game and the toll it takes.

George Nott (Lock - 29)

Again, you can see Nott as one of four pieces in a trade with the Dragons which sees Nott and Basham arrive and Davies and Young leave. Nott for Seb Davies and Basham for Thomas Young. Neither Davies nor Nott had great seasons last year but they were good the year before and at 29 still have room for growth. This switch probably doesn’t change the fortunes of either side but you feel Nott has more room for growth coming to Cardiff than the other way round.

Taine Basham (Backrow - 25)

Speaking with a Dragons’ supporting friend, he feels Basham’s career has stalled a little bit. Which is probably true but that really amounts to a down year last year and he’s still only 25 and has more than enough talent to get back in the Welsh set-up. Thomas Young has been good for Cardiff but Basham is probably a marginal upgrade for now and you feel that difference will grow next year and the year after. It’s up to Cardiff’s coaches to get Basham to the next level, which will be good news for Wales and the capital side.

Ioan Lloyd (Utility Back - 24)

Lloyd’s ability to play anywhere may have hampered his earlier career but in the last two seasons with the Scarlets he’s settled into the role of a starting fly-half. Callum Sheedy probably has that position nailed down so the question is whether Lloyd will regress if he’s bounced around the backline this year? His next best position is fullback but Cam Winnett looks to have that nailed down. So will he go in the centres? If so, he’ll be in a position he’s not started in since January 2023 when he played there away to Zebre in the Challenge Cup. The problem is that Lloyd is joining a team that isn’t chocked full of utility players. Mason Grady can play winger and centre, as can Josh Adams. Harri Millard played a lot of his early career at 13 but has now predominantly moved to the wing. Ben Thomas is a centre unless he’s playing for Wales. My worry is that Lloyd will be pushed wherever there are gaps. That won’t necessarily be an issue for Cardiff but it might halt his progress.

Tom Cottle (Lock - 18), Ieuan Davies (Scrum Half - 20), Ioan Emanuel (Loosehead Prop - 20)

Davies and Emanuel both join on loan from Bath with Cottle joining permanently from RGC. All three have featured for the Welsh U20s and Davies and Emanuel look like they could immediately deliver. Some people might not like these loan deals but I think they work well. I would imagine they are very cheap with Bath and maybe the WRU covering some. If the players turn into World stars then they’ll go back to Bath but if they’re slow to develop or good enough that Cardiff put their hands in their pocket they can be kept around. Cottle looks a good signing and you have to be good to play for the U20s at 18. He has time to develop behind a good group of locks and can grow in his own time.

Conclusion

This is a grim sentence, but, in Welsh rugby if you’re staying still you’re beating your competition. This off-season, Cardiff have at least stood still if not maybe slightly moved forward. I don’t anticipate their season going much different than it did in 2024-25 but they have probably set themselves up to move forward the season after. Overall, this is a good and young team. In the backs, Aled Davies and Josh Adams are the only two over 30 and you can see the Welsh side featuring a number of Cardiff backs this Autumn. All in all, it’s hard to feel either too excited or too despondent about this. They will probably be fine and there might be a few stars to unearth this year.