The Final Frontier

Why can't England score when they get to the 22?

Assuming England achieve six more 22-entries this Six Nations, they will have the most 22-entries in a Six Nations ever recorded by Oval Insights. The previous high was 50 in 2024. But they are achieving just 1.8pts per 22-entry exactly half what they managed last year. Why?

Let’s start by saying just how unlikely it is to achieve a 3.6pts per 22-entry. Across 233 teams in the Six Nations, URC, Prem, or Top14 to have had at least 30 22-entries in their first six games just two have had more than 3.5pts per entry; England 2025 and Leinster 2020-21. Just 47 of the 233 teams in that list had a number less than the 1.8pts England have managed this year. No team in the last six years of the Six Nations has had more unsuccessful 22-entries than England this year, France this year are the only other team to top 20 unsuccessful entries.

Part of the explanation is that we need to remember just how unsustainable last year’s 3.6pts per 22-entry is. But, that still leaves us with 1.8pts this year which is worryingly low.

First, not all 22-entries are created equally. For England, 58% (26 entries beginning outside of the 22 is second only to France) of their 22-entries have come from possessions which started outside the opposition 22. Those 22-entries have resulted in tries 19% of the time - the fourth highest ahead of only Italy (15%) and Wales (8%). Their points per 22-entry is ahead of only Wales and Italy for those entries.

Not that things get much better when they start in the opposition 22. In that case they score 2.2pts per entry which is behind everyone bar Italy. However, they generate 19 total entries which means they tie level with Ireland with 42 total points from their 22-entries starting in the 22.

Where England really suffer is in getting in and getting out. For 22-entries that last 0-2 phases, England come away with just 2.4pts per entry, the lowest in the Six Nations. For 3-7 phases England are good but points per entry drops off as the phase count increases. They score 1.8pts per entry on those entries which is behind only Ireland (1.9pts). For entries with more than eight phases they fall away again to 0.6pts per entry, the third highest.

This will be anathema to many England fans, but one of the reasons for this is that England are overplaying in the 22. Their forced and unforced turnovers in the opposition 22 top the table. That is coming from an expansive 22 attack. Only two teams have fewer than 60% of their carries in the opposition 22 tight to the ruck (pick and goes and one out carries). They are France (58.4%) and England (48%). That 48% is the lowest of the 30 teams over the last five years of Six Nations rugby. You can see that from the game on Saturday where England went through 18 phases then a loose pass from George Ford to Ellis Genge resulted in a knock-on and turnover ball.

The good news is that England are creating a huge amount of opportunities. As with a striker, you worry when they stop having chances not when they stop scoring. They have scored 81pts from their 22-entries, the second highest in the tournament. The problem is that France have one more 22-entry yet 42pts more. At the moment, England fans should be heartened. The 3.6pts per entry from last year is unsustainable and the 1.8pts per entry for this year are probably unsustainable as well. If they can split the difference (2.7pts) and keep the same high rate of entries then they’re more than a match for France.

Did you enjoy this? If so, I have a book out called Attacking the Space, you can get it in any bookshop or follow the links below:

Waterstones: https://www.waterstones.com/book/attacking-the-space/sam-larner/mike-prendergast/9781399625098

Amazon: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Attacking-Space-Inside-Tactical-Revolution/dp/1399625098