Week Two: Prem Observations
Who's up and who's down?
After two weeks we only have two undefeated teams: Bath and Saracens and three clubs without a victory; Gloucester, Quins, and Newcastle. But how much of this is a true view of what might happen this season and how much is just early season luck?
Saracens
They totally dismantled Bristol in the first 20 minutes then kept a firm enough hand on the leash to stop the glowing embers of a second half comeback. They have 3.6pts per 22-entry (per the excellent Oval Insights) and 71% positive outcome from 22-entries. Both are unsustainable but they also rank third by the number of 22-entries so there shouldn’t be much fear that this is anything other than a true reflection of where they stand.
Bath
Bath have spent their opening two games with centre Max Ojomoh at fly-half, a position he last played in February 2022 when they lost 40-3 to Saracens. But it hasn’t mattered. Partly because Ojomoh has been excellent and partly because Ben Spencer has had two of the best back-to-back games I have seen in the Premiership. He kicked Sale into a territorial death during Storm Amy with the most kicks in play by anyone in a Premiership match. Finn Russell and Santiago Carreras will be due back soon as well. Eek.
Exeter Chiefs
Having predicted them for a major step-up this year, I was dismayed to see them start the season with a terrible half against Northampton. No matter though, they roared back into that match to snatch a draw and then comprehensively dismantled Newcastle to record 30+ points in back-to-back matches for the first time since February when they beat Hartpury 36-14 and Cornish Pirates 43-7 or May 2024 if you’re looking just at the top flight when they beat Gloucester 38-17 and Quins 58-26. They face injury battered Bristol Bears next and Quins the week after and will be eyeing a lossless first four matches.
Northampton Saints
Defence has been optional for the Saints who have conceded 33pts and 35pts against Exeter and Gloucester respectively. Of course that means their attack must be firing? Well, it is by normal measurements (i.e. points) but their 16 22-entries are the second lowest in the league. They are incredibly efficient with them but that is not going to be sustainable for a whole season. The same is true of Sarries but they have volume of entries to fall back on. Saints don’t have that and a regression to the mean of efficiency turns them from an exciting edge of the seat team to one really really struggling to get wins.
Leicester Tigers
Hit and miss. They conceded 42pts against Bristol but were stout against Quins, keeping them under 20pts. Things look rosier under the bonnet though. They have conceded the second fewest 22-entries and made the second most. They are not great in the redzone at present scoring just 2pts per entry, above just Sale Sharks. But, when that all balances out they should still be pushing for the play-offs. There is still confusion over the fly-half position with both Orlando Bailey and Billy Searle getting a start and James O’Connor yet to come back into the fold. It might be Christmas by the time it’s clear who is going to start.
Sale Sharks
More of the same from the Sharks. They lead the league in kicking and are second by points allowed behind Saracens. As mentioned above, they have not had much success with their 22-entries yet but they are incredibly stout defensively. They now face Newcastle and Saracens where they will expect to get another win at home against Red Bull and would like a victory against Sarries but a losing bonus point will keep them well in the hunt.
Bristol Bears
The season began with a big victory of the Tigers, scoring 42pts. But that came at a huge cost. They lost Gabriel Ibitoye, Harry Randall, and AJ MacGinty to significant injuries. All three were standout performers last season. Then they were comprehensively beaten in North London by Saracens who blew them away in the first half. That game came with the further loss of Louis Rees-Zammit, Tom Jordan, and Joe Jenkins. Jenkins looks to be the worst injured and the Bears will be without most of their first choice backline. The goal now is to just stay in touch until reinforcements arrive or the injured players can get back. The next four games see them face Exeter, Gloucester, Bath, and Saints. In normal times they’d expect to get wins from three of those matches but now the goal will just be to stay in touch of the play-offs.
Gloucester
Gloucester haven’t bagged a win yet. They looked good in the opening Thursday night match against Sale but faded quickly and lost 27-10. In their second match they let Saints run away with it and gave themselves much too much to do. But, they did have a great second half and lost 37-35. One glaring area of weakness has been the lineout; Gloucester have won just 73.3% of their own throws and allowed 100% of their opponent’s lineouts to be won. That’s stopped them in their tracks too often and allowed their opposition to build from a safe platform. That momentum they have from the second half of the Saints match might come grinding to a halt in their third match against Bath.
Harlequins
When Will Evans scored a hat-trick in the first 30 minutes of the first match against Bath, things looked very good. But it’s been downhill since then. Bath were never put to bed and stormed back in the second half. That shape was followed in their next match against Leicester where it took Tigers until the 55th minute to score a point, by then Quins were 19-0 up. Quins are making good starts and are putting teams under pressure, they have also played the two best teams from last year. Those are positive areas but when you lose the first two matches it has the potential to kick your season quickly off track. That makes match day three all the more important - only problem is that it’s against Saracens.
Newcastle Red Bull
I’ve written about Newcastle a lot and sadly the early predictions have come true so far. They have more cash, they have a much better feeling around the place and they have a new coach or coaching set-up now. The problem is that their entire squad is probably worse than the squad that started last season. They haven’t been able to spend that cash yet to significantly change things and it is telling as they have conceded almost 40pts in both matches. The good news is that they face Sale, Northampton, and Quins in their next three games. They have to target at least one win from those three and a couple of bonus points. If they end the first block of Prem games without a win it will be hard to keep the positive momentum going from pre-season.
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